Over-valued AFL players are everywhere in SuperCoach 2010. Consider the Top 3 of SC:
Let them play all games, consistently. Scoring the same average as 2009.
If you don't like horror movies, look away now.
Pre-Season Mid Season End of Season
Ablett $744k $700k $660k
Montagna $668k $630k $590k
Swan $655k $615k $580k
Ablett loses a cool $85k in value. All the while picking up his 2nd Brownlow by a record margin.
Montagna tackles like a terrier, gathers hard ball and does everything right. And steals away $80k.
Swan blows $75k. 35 possessions each game.
The sentences don't match. How can the AFL players perform so well yet the SuperCoach be punished?
Premiums are over-valued from the start. Not only that, the SC scoring system will squeeze their price gradually over the season.
For practical purposes, call it a 10% price inflation. It can be read further here.
All of the blokes listed will dip even further in price if they do not live up to their 2009 form.
Towards the finish, Ablett would have to score close to 160!! Just to maintain his early price. If Gary Jnr were to consistently score and average 130:
Pre-Season Mid Sesason End of Season
Ablett $744k $650k $610k
The big message to take home is this:
A SuperCoach must decide whether they are shooting for the league premiership. Or the overall title.
Team Selection is critical to this. It will be very difficult to do both (in a strong league). The difference is much greater than I had thought.
The Worth I have been predicting has been conservative. The listed prices on other posts should be taken as mid-season. End of season values will be lower.
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